Following the significant decline in 2023, the European TRM returned to modest growth in 2024, at +0.6 %. Both domestic and international figures showed moderate increases overall. At +0.8 %, the domestic sector is performing better than the international sector, which stands at +0.3 %. Most international sub-sectors are in positive territory, with the exception of bilateral trade, which fell by -1.4 % in 2024, following an already negative result in 2023 (-4.5 %). Trade with third countries and cabotage are therefore driving the growth of international transport, a sign of the increasing Europeanisation of road freight transport. Two flag states – Poland and Lithuania – account for more than 58 % of trade between third countries and cabotage in Europe. Two major flag states leading the European road freight transport sector, Germany and Poland, are marking time.

In 2024, the Western Member States are faring better than the new Member States (NMS). There are two possible explanations for this. The war in Ukraine is having a more profound impact on Eastern European flags. These are also seeing their competitive advantage eroded due to a significant rise in costs, particularly social costs, as shown by the CNR’s country studies.

With Europe’s economic engine having shifted southwards, the strong performance of Spain and Italy comes as no surprise. The French shipping sector has also had a good year (+2.8 %). In Eastern Europe, the Polish market leader may have been reaching its limits for several years now.